* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 47 47 45 41 35 29 24 19 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 47 47 45 41 35 29 24 19 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 44 43 41 38 35 32 29 27 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 4 7 3 5 11 8 9 8 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -3 -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 96 152 128 152 138 341 303 311 309 303 290 302 258 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 122 119 116 112 107 106 106 105 104 103 104 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 73 71 71 69 66 66 66 64 62 56 54 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 19 20 19 18 17 16 15 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 43 51 55 64 58 67 68 77 60 55 53 39 25 200 MB DIV 75 75 59 27 31 4 -2 12 0 9 -17 -17 -18 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 -1 2 LAND (KM) 715 725 738 730 724 738 747 784 822 876 945 1049 1195 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.0 19.8 19.8 20.0 20.0 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.3 115.8 116.1 116.4 116.9 117.4 117.9 118.2 118.9 119.9 121.1 122.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 21 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -5. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##