* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052014 07/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 47 46 46 43 40 39 39 42 43 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 47 46 46 43 40 39 39 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 44 43 40 38 36 35 35 35 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 27 26 25 24 19 15 11 9 7 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 1 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 343 345 343 342 341 346 343 333 335 333 16 45 134 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 151 150 150 151 151 150 148 146 147 147 140 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 81 80 80 78 79 80 82 83 81 79 76 72 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -27 -35 -32 -9 -11 -15 -30 -32 -45 -36 -49 -48 200 MB DIV 64 70 54 75 99 49 68 17 23 0 25 15 18 700-850 TADV -1 -1 2 3 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 146 157 168 172 176 191 209 237 270 312 377 495 629 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.2 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.0 16.7 16.8 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 104.6 104.7 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.7 105.1 105.8 106.6 107.2 108.8 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 0 0 1 1 3 3 3 5 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 32 32 31 30 32 27 21 17 18 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -3. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052014 ELIDA 07/01/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052014 ELIDA 07/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##