* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012014 07/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 59 68 77 85 85 82 75 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 59 68 77 85 85 82 75 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 35 40 45 52 59 64 62 52 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 9 9 9 8 10 19 24 45 50 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 -1 0 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 7 16 10 9 349 352 330 249 261 224 223 216 208 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.5 25.4 21.6 14.8 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 136 135 135 132 129 132 112 89 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 113 114 113 114 111 110 115 101 81 67 65 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 13 12 14 12 11 6 6 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 47 47 48 49 51 53 51 48 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 13 15 17 20 25 30 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -47 -30 -42 -51 -41 -40 3 6 18 23 53 58 200 MB DIV 15 25 18 1 -1 18 15 48 35 79 37 63 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 12 16 4 -24 -45 -18 LAND (KM) 106 101 95 93 88 121 166 100 53 152 229 160 85 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.4 29.4 30.8 32.2 34.0 36.4 39.7 42.1 43.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.3 79.4 79.6 79.7 79.8 79.7 79.0 77.2 74.1 69.7 66.0 62.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 4 6 7 10 14 21 21 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 27 24 21 17 24 15 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 5. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 29. 38. 47. 55. 55. 52. 45. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ONE 07/01/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ONE 07/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ONE 07/01/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)