* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 43 41 37 35 28 25 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 43 41 37 35 28 25 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 42 41 39 37 34 31 28 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 0 3 4 1 2 8 10 7 9 4 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -3 0 -5 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 247 285 162 148 160 265 318 312 298 299 273 239 228 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.6 24.2 23.9 23.6 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 122 120 117 115 113 111 106 103 100 97 95 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 71 69 69 66 65 61 58 53 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 20 19 19 18 17 18 17 17 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 32 29 30 29 36 53 45 53 46 54 49 33 31 200 MB DIV 63 50 27 34 25 29 13 10 5 6 -13 -18 -17 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 1 1 5 LAND (KM) 713 718 724 726 725 730 749 772 822 881 964 1054 1167 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.7 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.3 115.6 115.9 116.1 116.5 116.8 117.4 118.3 119.3 120.4 121.9 123.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 4 4 5 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -2. -4. -3. -6. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -5. -12. -15. -20. -24. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##