* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP052014 07/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 42 41 39 36 35 34 36 38 41 42 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 42 41 39 36 35 34 36 38 41 42 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 41 37 34 32 30 30 30 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 24 25 25 23 21 15 13 9 7 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 342 341 337 334 339 331 334 329 342 338 28 86 143 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 151 151 151 151 151 149 146 142 139 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 79 79 80 82 80 80 75 73 68 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -36 -23 -6 -3 -15 -13 -40 -32 -56 -47 -51 -36 200 MB DIV 43 41 67 78 50 62 14 4 6 23 23 14 31 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 130 138 145 153 160 168 168 184 229 290 415 519 585 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.3 104.4 104.5 104.6 104.6 104.6 104.6 104.7 105.1 106.2 108.0 109.3 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 4 7 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 36 35 34 33 33 32 27 19 14 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -9. -7. -4. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052014 ELIDA 07/01/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052014 ELIDA 07/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##