* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012014 07/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 57 67 78 83 82 77 67 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 57 67 78 83 82 77 67 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 49 56 60 57 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 10 11 12 9 12 15 30 41 51 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 -6 -3 -6 -4 2 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 10 16 352 336 333 319 355 283 246 217 225 215 209 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.7 26.5 25.1 18.6 14.5 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 135 135 134 131 131 134 121 109 78 70 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 113 113 113 113 111 112 115 106 97 73 67 64 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.1 -53.5 -52.5 -52.9 -51.9 -52.6 -51.8 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 13 12 11 15 12 12 6 6 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 51 49 50 50 53 52 54 54 51 49 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 18 18 21 26 30 34 37 34 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -29 -36 -43 -38 -30 -28 7 28 17 44 108 156 200 MB DIV 18 20 7 2 19 25 37 51 65 66 52 31 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 18 -7 -20 -16 -41 -12 LAND (KM) 102 101 99 110 109 193 206 128 99 309 289 169 105 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.9 31.3 33.0 35.2 37.8 40.7 42.9 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.3 79.4 79.5 79.5 79.2 78.6 77.3 74.9 71.5 67.2 63.4 60.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 5 7 9 12 17 21 20 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 26 23 21 23 35 19 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 3. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 27. 37. 48. 53. 52. 47. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ONE 07/01/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ONE 07/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ONE 07/01/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)