* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 33 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 33 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 31 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 3 4 1 4 9 9 8 4 2 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 311 179 146 210 292 293 317 327 320 307 290 235 244 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.7 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.5 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 119 116 115 112 111 107 103 99 99 98 93 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 68 68 68 68 62 59 54 55 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 20 20 20 18 18 17 17 16 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 34 42 41 48 53 59 65 57 58 48 27 25 27 200 MB DIV 46 43 46 32 15 9 13 7 -4 -11 -18 -15 -20 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 723 726 720 721 724 731 758 799 855 902 943 1050 1239 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.9 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 115.8 116.0 116.2 116.4 116.8 117.2 118.0 118.9 119.7 120.3 122.1 124.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 6 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##