* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 55 59 68 76 82 89 89 88 77 68 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 55 59 68 76 82 89 89 88 77 68 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 49 53 56 61 66 71 72 68 57 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 11 10 12 10 12 20 35 42 42 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -4 -1 -5 -4 -5 2 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 30 346 331 335 334 315 273 275 206 219 211 198 165 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.2 25.2 22.2 15.4 11.7 9.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 135 133 130 132 128 110 92 73 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 114 114 112 111 113 112 97 83 69 65 64 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -50.3 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 14 12 12 7 7 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 48 50 52 52 56 56 54 49 47 44 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 19 20 22 27 31 37 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -32 -40 -30 -28 -39 -2 1 21 48 111 163 186 200 MB DIV 31 -2 4 17 35 26 58 26 83 35 54 37 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 10 5 -12 -20 -41 -22 -30 LAND (KM) 101 107 114 114 137 208 143 54 207 253 142 68 117 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.9 29.4 30.5 32.2 34.3 36.8 39.5 42.3 44.6 46.6 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.4 79.4 79.5 79.6 79.2 78.3 76.5 73.5 69.6 64.9 61.0 57.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 6 6 7 11 15 19 21 21 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 27 23 21 26 25 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 20. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 28. 36. 42. 49. 49. 48. 37. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/01/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)