* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 38 35 32 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 38 35 32 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 38 37 34 31 29 26 24 22 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 1 1 1 3 7 3 7 6 3 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 5 4 SHEAR DIR 185 141 167 342 297 299 323 335 317 327 312 258 217 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.4 24.0 23.8 23.5 23.0 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 115 114 112 109 106 104 100 99 97 92 88 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 66 66 64 61 60 56 51 48 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 14 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 53 61 60 67 73 76 84 81 76 67 41 36 14 200 MB DIV 45 52 31 30 36 30 19 12 0 -21 -11 -24 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 734 728 724 724 725 734 746 777 828 911 995 1107 1262 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.2 116.4 116.6 116.7 117.1 117.5 118.1 118.9 120.0 121.4 123.3 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -19. -25. -30. -34. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##