* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 58 61 70 77 85 89 88 84 75 64 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 58 61 70 77 85 89 88 84 75 64 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 57 59 64 68 72 72 65 54 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 13 13 25 37 48 36 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -5 -5 -3 -1 -3 4 3 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 355 340 332 331 321 313 275 247 208 215 210 173 183 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 26.7 25.3 19.5 13.7 9.9 8.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 134 133 132 131 134 123 111 81 70 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 113 113 112 112 116 108 98 76 68 65 64 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -51.5 -50.8 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 14 15 11 12 6 5 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 48 50 50 52 54 53 52 48 47 41 42 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 17 17 17 20 21 25 29 32 37 36 32 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -44 -35 -34 -39 -34 -4 22 7 73 134 164 185 200 MB DIV 0 8 19 32 27 34 43 61 60 39 14 52 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 21 -3 -9 -22 -26 -24 -8 LAND (KM) 110 118 127 140 175 244 144 96 313 282 141 76 7 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.1 28.4 29.0 29.5 30.9 32.8 35.0 37.6 40.4 43.3 45.6 47.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.3 79.3 79.3 79.2 78.6 77.4 75.0 71.6 67.5 63.1 59.1 55.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 6 6 9 13 17 20 22 20 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 27 22 21 31 20 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 5. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 6. 10. 13. 16. 20. 18. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 25. 32. 40. 44. 43. 39. 30. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)