* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 40 37 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 40 37 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 40 39 35 31 28 25 22 20 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 2 1 4 4 5 4 5 6 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 2 6 6 SHEAR DIR 153 218 287 316 67 1 356 335 313 314 230 234 195 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.3 24.9 24.4 23.9 23.6 23.3 22.8 22.5 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 116 114 112 108 104 99 97 94 89 86 84 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 66 66 65 60 57 52 48 47 48 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 21 21 21 20 18 17 15 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 51 56 58 60 60 68 77 77 61 49 37 25 7 200 MB DIV 36 25 42 48 55 26 1 0 -1 4 -12 -21 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -4 1 LAND (KM) 704 693 682 677 673 666 693 735 817 914 1023 1150 1292 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.7 21.8 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 115.9 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.6 117.3 118.1 119.2 120.7 122.6 124.3 125.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -16. -24. -30. -35. -40. -46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/02/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##