* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 61 65 74 80 86 88 86 77 62 54 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 61 65 74 80 86 88 86 77 62 42 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 57 60 62 66 71 73 70 59 48 43 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 12 10 8 10 18 40 70 44 27 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 2 2 -5 0 9 4 SHEAR DIR 340 344 336 323 324 292 264 223 229 228 214 224 202 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.4 25.8 24.1 16.7 12.1 9.7 7.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 131 130 133 131 115 102 75 69 66 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 111 111 111 114 114 101 91 71 66 64 63 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.4 -50.3 -49.4 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 14 15 13 14 9 7 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 47 46 47 47 50 50 47 44 36 43 46 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 17 18 19 23 24 27 31 37 38 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -35 -33 -40 -51 -16 3 23 52 107 172 156 150 200 MB DIV 9 16 28 25 24 59 32 68 57 55 29 31 31 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 -2 6 5 1 -13 -21 3 19 -5 LAND (KM) 125 141 160 203 232 193 117 208 298 227 78 128 -87 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.7 30.3 31.8 33.8 36.2 38.8 41.5 44.3 46.5 48.3 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.2 79.1 79.0 78.9 78.0 76.1 73.5 70.0 66.1 61.7 58.2 55.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 10 15 17 20 21 19 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 21 20 24 34 18 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. -1. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 20. 19. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 24. 30. 36. 38. 36. 27. 12. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 5( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)