* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 38 37 33 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 38 37 33 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 38 37 35 32 28 26 23 20 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 4 2 2 5 2 4 7 4 8 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -6 -4 -4 -2 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 69 278 325 14 22 334 313 277 254 248 217 184 184 SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.2 24.8 24.2 23.4 22.8 22.4 21.8 21.7 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 114 113 111 108 102 95 89 85 78 77 76 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 66 65 63 60 55 50 43 42 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 20 20 19 17 15 14 11 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 55 61 60 61 66 82 84 88 62 33 23 2 -1 200 MB DIV 32 45 54 49 44 30 1 -5 -3 -3 -13 3 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 705 689 673 668 664 665 670 723 785 849 947 1075 1218 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.5 22.2 22.7 23.0 23.0 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.0 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.7 117.3 118.4 119.8 121.3 122.8 124.3 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 7 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -20. -27. -33. -39. -45. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##