* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 60 64 72 80 85 87 83 70 59 54 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 60 64 72 80 85 87 71 53 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 57 60 64 69 69 60 50 41 32 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 13 9 11 9 27 47 41 26 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -6 -5 -5 0 6 0 0 5 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 360 356 327 335 355 299 251 215 224 200 196 207 236 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 26.2 24.6 15.5 12.1 10.9 7.6 5.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 131 130 132 134 119 106 73 68 67 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 111 110 113 117 105 95 69 66 65 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -52.8 -52.9 -51.6 -51.8 -50.4 -49.2 -49.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 14 15 12 12 13 7 6 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 49 51 50 48 48 42 38 48 54 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 19 20 22 26 30 37 40 35 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -38 -47 -53 -39 -7 45 47 110 138 170 163 110 200 MB DIV 19 23 16 22 36 48 66 51 39 26 46 17 4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 2 17 -12 -8 -34 -37 -1 -1 4 LAND (KM) 159 182 212 256 225 142 154 309 222 -6 40 -56 178 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.4 29.9 30.6 31.2 33.1 35.5 38.4 41.7 44.7 47.2 49.2 50.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.0 79.0 79.0 78.7 78.4 76.9 74.2 70.7 66.7 63.2 60.2 56.7 52.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 9 14 18 21 21 18 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 21 26 35 22 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 22. 15. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 30. 35. 37. 33. 20. 9. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED