* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 69 76 82 83 83 71 60 53 41 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 69 76 82 83 83 59 48 39 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 62 64 69 71 66 54 38 41 33 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 8 6 12 17 38 47 33 22 34 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 1 1 -1 0 19 13 13 SHEAR DIR 323 316 326 328 303 263 206 214 202 192 263 264 252 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.0 25.3 19.8 13.1 11.7 11.2 6.6 6.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 131 133 127 111 82 69 66 66 67 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 111 112 115 112 99 76 67 64 64 66 67 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 11 10 13 7 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 50 49 48 49 49 42 46 53 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 20 22 24 28 32 39 33 29 30 24 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -35 -45 -31 -10 11 27 60 106 114 119 112 63 200 MB DIV 45 29 5 45 42 40 85 21 61 33 28 5 11 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 2 -5 -17 -50 -61 -20 50 65 77 LAND (KM) 176 205 219 194 160 70 270 241 72 11 90 8 411 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.0 30.6 31.5 32.3 34.5 37.2 40.3 43.4 45.9 47.8 50.1 52.7 LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.1 79.1 78.6 78.0 75.8 72.4 68.2 64.4 61.7 60.5 56.4 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 10 12 17 21 22 18 13 14 21 25 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 27 34 25 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -2. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 13. 9. 9. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 21. 27. 28. 28. 16. 5. -2. -14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/02/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED