* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 30 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 10 12 10 10 6 6 11 11 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -4 -2 -3 -1 -3 0 0 2 4 5 SHEAR DIR 307 325 337 329 327 332 305 284 248 226 207 190 193 SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.2 24.9 24.6 23.9 23.2 22.7 22.1 21.4 20.9 20.7 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 111 109 106 99 93 88 82 75 69 67 70 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 67 65 62 59 54 51 48 45 40 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 18 18 16 14 12 10 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 53 53 56 65 64 66 64 44 11 -5 -19 -24 -21 200 MB DIV 31 32 28 26 9 -4 -5 -8 -7 -3 0 -12 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 4 LAND (KM) 670 659 649 644 640 665 738 798 850 938 1052 1213 1368 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.3 24.5 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.2 116.2 116.5 116.7 117.5 118.7 120.1 121.6 123.2 124.8 126.6 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -14. -22. -30. -37. -44. -50. -57. -65. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/02/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##