* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 73 77 85 89 88 77 65 53 47 36 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 73 77 85 89 88 62 52 40 34 23 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 67 70 72 76 73 61 44 41 40 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 6 5 6 9 28 41 47 38 19 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 3 2 1 1 8 3 9 SHEAR DIR 324 329 326 301 305 209 202 207 197 177 192 199 293 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 25.9 23.6 14.5 12.0 10.8 7.7 4.4 7.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 130 132 133 116 99 72 68 67 65 66 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 111 113 115 103 89 69 66 65 64 N/A 66 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.0 -50.0 -48.3 -48.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 10 13 12 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 48 49 51 49 47 42 44 54 58 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 20 22 23 26 31 36 35 31 26 25 18 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -47 -25 -9 -1 43 42 114 122 153 185 155 37 200 MB DIV 36 12 42 51 46 66 67 36 45 50 29 20 19 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -2 3 8 -20 -49 -53 -41 -22 18 17 26 LAND (KM) 201 216 153 128 70 126 266 172 -49 60 23 164 614 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.0 31.7 32.7 33.6 35.9 38.9 42.1 45.2 48.0 50.3 52.3 54.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.1 78.9 78.2 77.4 74.5 70.5 66.4 62.9 60.1 57.9 53.3 46.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 14 19 22 21 18 15 15 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 21 28 28 21 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 4. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 15. 11. 6. 5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 25. 29. 28. 17. 5. -7. -13. -24. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 10( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)