* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 68 71 76 76 77 68 54 46 35 27 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 68 71 76 76 77 56 38 34 23 15 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 67 69 71 65 53 42 34 36 40 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 8 8 20 44 53 37 29 24 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 1 0 2 -1 3 9 9 10 SHEAR DIR 335 333 306 299 263 206 223 209 184 186 209 235 254 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.1 25.1 19.6 12.5 11.8 7.8 4.4 5.9 6.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 132 133 128 110 82 70 69 66 64 64 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 113 115 112 98 76 68 66 65 N/A N/A 63 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.1 -49.9 -49.3 -49.6 -50.4 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 13 12 8 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 48 47 48 48 47 45 35 44 54 58 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 22 23 24 27 30 38 37 28 26 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -24 -18 -11 -1 35 70 126 126 152 184 111 97 200 MB DIV 27 47 37 40 39 63 28 59 55 43 22 22 31 700-850 TADV -7 0 7 6 -4 -16 -39 -45 -16 -5 -13 4 28 LAND (KM) 210 174 136 103 57 247 202 27 32 -32 128 319 537 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.6 32.3 33.4 34.4 37.2 40.4 43.6 46.9 49.6 51.9 54.1 56.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 78.8 78.3 77.2 76.1 72.7 68.7 64.9 61.1 57.4 53.7 51.3 49.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 11 14 17 21 22 21 20 17 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 31 26 19 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 0. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 17. 15. 7. 4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 16. 17. 8. -6. -14. -25. -33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 5( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED