* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 88 91 91 85 77 64 46 37 28 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 80 85 86 88 89 83 75 51 37 28 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 85 76 84 81 69 54 41 32 34 37 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 10 23 43 51 43 31 18 18 30 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 1 -1 2 5 -3 3 0 9 10 2 SHEAR DIR 280 284 235 213 196 219 195 166 177 188 254 260 261 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 26.5 25.1 24.2 16.9 12.2 10.9 6.2 5.2 6.6 4.7 3.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 121 110 103 76 69 68 66 66 65 63 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 107 98 93 71 67 66 65 N/A 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -51.4 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 7 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 50 48 49 50 49 42 48 49 55 65 76 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 24 27 28 32 36 34 27 23 19 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR -2 11 14 51 49 84 114 106 113 110 112 136 149 200 MB DIV 47 35 37 51 63 34 56 43 46 42 51 52 10 700-850 TADV 0 4 -12 -19 -37 -35 -35 -61 -16 -16 49 98 102 LAND (KM) 101 46 11 125 228 191 15 40 3 252 630 916 1069 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 34.0 35.1 36.5 37.9 41.2 44.3 47.2 50.1 53.3 56.9 59.3 60.9 LONG(DEG W) 78.3 77.3 76.3 74.4 72.5 68.2 64.2 60.2 56.0 52.1 48.4 45.9 44.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 17 21 22 22 21 20 20 20 17 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -6. -13. -22. -30. -37. -40. -44. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -8. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 11. 3. -1. -5. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 11. 5. -3. -16. -34. -43. -52. -62. -70. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 11( 26) 9( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED