* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 83 79 73 63 51 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 94 92 88 83 54 41 31 27 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 89 83 76 67 44 38 31 33 33 37 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 16 25 34 45 53 36 28 23 11 26 38 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 3 2 4 -5 3 2 0 15 12 15 SHEAR DIR 238 205 202 204 210 189 167 175 176 211 253 259 245 SST (C) 26.1 24.8 24.0 20.6 14.7 12.2 11.3 6.8 5.7 6.6 6.6 9.1 10.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 107 102 86 72 69 68 67 67 66 65 65 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 95 92 80 70 66 66 66 66 65 64 63 63 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.1 -51.8 -50.8 -51.4 -51.0 -49.3 -48.3 -49.8 -52.0 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 53 51 44 50 55 61 59 65 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 27 29 32 38 35 26 26 22 14 10 14 850 MB ENV VOR 13 43 37 60 89 120 124 148 121 110 141 95 77 200 MB DIV 18 44 62 73 55 66 57 55 51 43 47 31 18 700-850 TADV -22 -30 -31 -53 -50 -46 -41 -7 -13 -28 32 68 -40 LAND (KM) -2 145 225 186 208 -27 23 -23 299 683 1043 1346 1513 LAT (DEG N) 35.4 36.8 38.1 40.0 41.9 45.1 47.1 49.7 53.2 56.2 58.5 59.7 60.2 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 74.2 72.4 70.2 67.9 64.2 60.6 56.3 51.4 46.6 42.1 37.4 32.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 22 26 23 18 18 21 22 19 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 19 CX,CY: 12/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -24. -33. -42. -47. -53. -56. -58. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -4. -7. -13. -15. -14. -13. -9. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 11. 2. 2. -3. -11. -14. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -6. -12. -22. -34. -49. -57. -66. -79. -90. -89. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 13( 13) 9( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)