* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 29 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 11 12 8 7 8 14 23 31 37 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 1 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 SHEAR DIR 319 305 311 306 297 283 296 229 209 202 199 215 222 SST (C) 23.7 23.4 23.2 22.8 22.5 21.8 21.5 20.9 20.1 19.6 19.3 19.2 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 97 94 93 89 86 78 75 70 62 61 61 60 59 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 52 49 48 48 44 43 37 34 33 31 29 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 9 8 6 5 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 40 33 22 17 2 -32 -40 -44 -46 -34 -24 -21 -13 200 MB DIV 8 -6 -10 -11 -10 -18 -7 -10 -2 13 3 4 -5 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -3 4 -1 5 2 7 6 7 -5 LAND (KM) 677 704 733 753 764 730 837 914 1022 1044 1067 1125 1013 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.6 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.8 23.8 24.7 26.0 27.1 28.3 29.6 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.3 118.7 119.4 120.1 120.8 122.1 123.5 125.4 126.9 128.8 130.7 130.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 7 5 6 9 10 9 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -16. -16. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -15. -28. -40. -51. -62. -71. -82. -90. -98. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/04/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##