* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 66 62 58 46 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 71 66 62 46 37 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 69 62 54 46 37 30 33 34 36 40 45 50 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 34 42 51 46 28 26 16 6 9 14 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 4 3 -1 -2 0 2 1 -3 5 4 1 SHEAR DIR 200 196 202 196 176 167 168 154 156 238 274 275 254 SST (C) 23.3 19.7 13.7 11.7 12.4 11.8 7.0 4.4 6.4 6.1 5.1 9.0 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 98 83 71 68 68 68 67 66 65 63 64 66 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 78 69 66 65 66 66 N/A 64 N/A N/A 65 66 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -48.5 -47.0 -47.4 -48.5 -48.9 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 47 42 48 57 66 66 69 66 64 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 30 33 39 40 33 25 24 22 19 17 11 6 850 MB ENV VOR 39 57 93 122 126 136 180 188 188 166 121 126 128 200 MB DIV 62 88 51 27 62 77 64 35 53 26 14 0 -9 700-850 TADV -24 -54 -53 -52 -62 -51 -31 -11 -30 -7 -11 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 207 152 208 8 -6 35 -27 193 502 792 1022 1328 1462 LAT (DEG N) 38.4 40.4 42.3 43.9 45.4 46.8 49.6 53.2 56.7 58.8 59.3 60.8 63.4 LONG(DEG W) 72.4 70.1 67.7 66.2 64.6 61.3 56.4 53.0 50.9 48.0 43.5 38.1 31.4 STM SPEED (KT) 24 26 23 19 16 17 21 20 16 12 14 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 22 CX,CY: 16/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -17. -25. -32. -37. -42. -45. -47. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -22. -26. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 6. 8. 4. -3. -4. -6. -10. -11. -16. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -29. -43. -51. -60. -66. -71. -81. -87. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/04/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)