* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 31 29 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 12 9 10 9 9 11 20 26 29 28 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 0 0 1 4 2 2 2 4 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 316 308 302 290 266 282 239 214 196 189 182 224 N/A SST (C) 22.9 22.6 22.2 22.0 21.6 21.0 20.5 20.1 19.7 19.5 19.3 19.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 90 87 83 81 76 70 65 61 59 59 59 60 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 50 46 42 41 36 35 33 30 27 24 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 8 -12 -24 -29 -38 -40 -26 -17 -12 -22 N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -2 2 -5 -19 -9 -7 0 9 8 14 -3 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -3 2 -1 4 1 7 5 3 1 N/A LAND (KM) 717 728 738 756 781 832 901 964 1024 1051 1046 1208 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.7 25.5 26.3 26.9 27.5 28.2 27.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.5 120.2 120.9 121.5 122.6 123.7 124.9 126.2 127.6 128.4 129.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 6 5 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -18. -22. -22. -21. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -2. -6. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -19. -32. -44. -56. -67. -76. -84. -90. -94. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/05/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##