* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 49 44 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 48 40 35 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 53 39 35 36 29 30 29 29 30 33 35 37 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 50 46 38 29 26 17 4 12 34 41 43 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 -3 -3 0 5 0 5 6 11 15 9 SHEAR DIR 200 197 175 159 160 165 151 145 272 265 255 247 254 SST (C) 13.7 11.7 12.4 12.5 11.9 7.4 4.4 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.2 3.3 3.5 POT. INT. (KT) 71 68 68 68 68 66 66 64 62 60 60 62 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 69 66 66 65 65 65 N/A 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.3 -48.2 -46.3 -46.6 -47.6 -48.0 -48.3 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 48 43 43 49 56 64 60 73 77 66 62 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 36 39 38 33 25 24 20 17 14 12 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 95 124 138 123 141 172 170 185 169 157 158 111 91 200 MB DIV 37 28 68 49 81 49 37 53 36 38 33 8 2 700-850 TADV -37 -45 -56 -56 -37 -2 -6 -2 -1 15 -25 -13 -11 LAND (KM) 202 -2 -3 -3 76 -14 186 482 674 760 856 993 1016 LAT (DEG N) 42.3 43.9 45.4 46.4 47.4 49.7 53.3 56.6 59.0 60.1 59.8 60.6 62.4 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 66.0 64.4 62.8 61.2 57.0 53.1 51.2 50.7 49.8 47.8 45.7 42.8 STM SPEED (KT) 23 19 17 15 17 19 20 14 9 4 5 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 25 CX,CY: 16/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -21. -25. -28. -29. -31. -32. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -20. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -16. -21. -35. -46. -57. -66. -74. -83. -94.-100. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/05/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.5/ -0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/05/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/05/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED