* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 22 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 8 6 4 5 13 21 28 31 23 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 0 2 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 307 303 293 276 271 256 190 178 184 177 183 219 N/A SST (C) 22.5 22.2 21.8 21.5 21.2 20.6 20.2 19.7 19.4 19.1 18.9 19.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 83 79 75 72 65 61 59 59 59 58 60 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 47 44 43 40 36 35 32 30 25 23 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 2 -22 -31 -30 -42 -42 -33 -28 -16 -10 -20 N/A 200 MB DIV 2 3 2 -17 -25 -3 -5 -1 7 13 -1 4 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 0 3 1 0 3 3 6 7 1 3 N/A LAND (KM) 701 700 707 729 760 821 884 927 944 977 964 1125 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.3 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.6 26.3 27.1 27.7 28.3 29.1 28.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.3 119.9 120.5 121.2 121.8 122.9 123.8 124.9 126.1 127.5 128.2 129.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 4 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -14. -17. -20. -19. -18. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 0. -5. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -19. -32. -45. -58. -69. -78. -87. -92. -95. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/05/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/05/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##