* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 45 39 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 41 36 29 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 37 38 36 30 31 30 31 33 36 38 40 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 50 47 41 29 25 20 8 4 7 19 37 39 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -4 -5 0 3 2 -3 1 5 11 14 6 SHEAR DIR 191 173 167 165 175 162 136 268 305 280 264 271 345 SST (C) 11.8 12.3 12.6 12.3 10.6 5.7 4.5 6.5 5.5 5.6 6.5 5.5 2.5 POT. INT. (KT) 68 66 67 68 67 66 66 65 61 63 62 68 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 66 64 65 65 65 65 N/A 64 N/A N/A 61 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -49.3 -47.0 -46.0 -46.6 -46.7 -49.6 -48.7 -46.9 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 40 39 48 54 57 56 64 73 67 68 67 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 37 41 38 35 30 25 23 20 19 16 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 116 133 129 155 179 221 222 171 155 150 125 96 119 200 MB DIV 30 63 44 64 64 51 30 27 30 50 6 16 39 700-850 TADV -53 -65 -51 -23 0 -31 -5 8 0 -5 19 -5 10 LAND (KM) 23 6 4 62 56 5 209 579 695 718 561 867 945 LAT (DEG N) 44.5 45.3 46.0 47.1 48.1 50.9 54.2 58.3 61.1 60.7 56.6 58.7 65.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.3 65.0 63.6 61.8 60.0 55.9 53.2 52.1 51.8 51.1 49.4 46.0 40.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 12 14 16 17 19 19 17 6 11 8 25 37 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 26 CX,CY: 15/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. -27. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -15. -18. -21. -25. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -24. -27. -31. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 0. -2. -5. -11. -15. -19. -20. -24. -27. -28. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -22. -34. -46. -56. -61. -69. -80. -89. -97. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/05/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.4/ -0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/05/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/05/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)