* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP042014 07/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 22 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 6 6 6 9 19 24 33 30 31 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 3 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 311 287 268 261 271 214 185 183 183 177 199 215 N/A SST (C) 22.1 21.8 21.4 21.1 20.8 20.4 19.9 19.5 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 79 75 71 68 63 59 59 60 59 59 60 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 48 44 44 43 38 35 34 31 31 27 25 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 10 10 9 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -20 -33 -29 -31 -37 -37 -25 -29 -27 -21 -35 N/A 200 MB DIV 5 2 -13 -22 -18 -4 0 1 6 19 10 12 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 3 2 0 4 0 4 5 5 -1 2 N/A LAND (KM) 685 700 724 745 772 840 905 936 979 1045 1068 1237 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.9 24.4 24.9 25.4 26.2 26.8 27.5 27.9 28.4 29.0 28.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.5 121.2 121.8 122.3 123.3 124.5 125.6 127.0 128.6 129.5 130.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -7. -13. -16. -19. -22. -21. -19. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 3. -3. -8. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -20. -34. -48. -61. -72. -81. -89. -95. -99. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/05/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042014 DOUGLAS 07/05/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##