* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 07/07/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 34 37 44 49 52 52 48 44 40 37 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 34 37 44 49 52 52 48 44 40 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 40 43 44 43 41 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 13 14 11 10 10 12 14 15 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 -4 -3 0 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 21 10 350 343 345 329 329 308 301 277 267 267 268 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.6 27.9 27.1 25.8 25.0 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 160 158 158 158 151 143 135 121 113 108 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 78 78 77 73 72 67 64 57 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -27 -29 -30 -31 -43 -49 -50 -51 -52 -45 -55 -64 200 MB DIV 103 83 41 41 38 29 42 25 12 -15 -5 -11 -9 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 4 10 7 10 LAND (KM) 884 886 887 874 858 857 884 932 919 981 1021 1090 1194 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.5 11.1 12.5 13.9 15.0 16.1 16.9 17.8 18.5 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 103.1 104.1 105.3 106.4 108.7 111.0 113.0 115.0 116.9 118.7 120.4 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 30 38 35 31 20 17 21 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 12. 19. 24. 27. 27. 23. 19. 15. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 07/07/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 07/07/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##