* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 07/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 32 34 32 29 24 19 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 32 34 32 29 24 19 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 14 15 17 12 11 14 19 18 19 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 313 316 304 301 303 310 291 265 264 264 263 264 290 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.7 25.8 25.2 24.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 156 158 157 149 143 136 129 119 113 108 106 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 77 76 73 71 66 63 56 54 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -34 -32 -34 -41 -40 -58 -61 -50 -48 -53 -56 -69 200 MB DIV 54 40 29 30 40 38 14 -6 -21 -23 -33 -25 -26 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 3 1 1 1 4 0 LAND (KM) 799 796 802 809 831 881 845 852 889 897 944 1001 1101 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.3 13.9 15.3 16.4 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.1 108.1 109.2 110.3 112.4 114.2 115.7 117.0 118.0 119.0 120.0 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 6 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 46 35 29 26 21 17 10 4 15 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 7. 4. -1. -6. -8. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 07/07/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 07/07/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##