* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 07/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 40 46 48 47 43 37 32 26 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 40 46 48 47 43 37 32 26 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 33 36 36 35 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 7 8 4 6 8 15 13 20 23 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 1 -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 353 343 348 329 334 8 289 277 296 263 288 267 253 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.0 26.6 25.6 24.8 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 148 147 148 150 151 145 130 119 110 104 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 72 74 74 75 73 70 65 64 62 60 57 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 36 36 38 37 32 17 11 -8 -22 -25 -30 -35 -43 200 MB DIV 58 47 41 37 33 46 39 17 -14 6 32 35 21 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -3 0 -1 0 1 3 7 7 LAND (KM) 1737 1780 1826 1874 1926 1990 2057 2156 2238 2302 2211 2039 1915 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.1 11.0 11.9 12.9 13.9 15.0 16.1 17.3 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.3 120.2 121.2 122.2 124.3 126.3 128.5 130.6 132.5 134.2 135.6 136.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 32 33 33 28 25 20 27 14 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 29. 32. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 26. 28. 27. 23. 17. 12. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 07/07/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 07/07/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##