* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992014 07/07/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 49 54 58 55 50 43 35 27 20 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 49 54 58 55 50 43 35 27 20 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 45 47 51 55 58 58 53 47 40 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 2 6 11 13 19 21 35 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 -3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 335 351 345 334 346 337 288 285 293 285 275 254 238 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.6 27.3 26.2 25.4 24.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 147 147 150 152 151 137 125 116 111 106 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 74 72 71 66 64 64 64 60 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 35 29 27 20 10 0 -14 -24 -31 -42 -39 -44 200 MB DIV 46 30 31 35 33 53 13 14 0 2 17 56 29 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -4 -5 -3 3 0 2 2 7 4 6 LAND (KM) 1787 1834 1887 1936 1991 2057 2143 2252 2330 2267 2102 1953 1843 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.9 10.2 11.1 12.2 13.1 14.2 15.2 16.3 17.4 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.1 121.0 122.1 123.2 125.4 127.7 129.9 132.1 133.9 135.2 136.4 137.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 32 35 32 32 28 34 9 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 20. 23. 20. 15. 8. 0. -8. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992014 INVEST 07/07/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992014 INVEST 07/07/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##