* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 49 55 57 56 52 46 39 31 26 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 49 55 57 56 52 46 39 31 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 43 47 51 53 52 49 45 40 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 12 10 12 14 16 16 19 24 32 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 1 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 342 342 343 346 354 328 312 325 325 324 308 291 303 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.5 29.0 28.7 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.3 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 148 151 157 154 141 140 136 128 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 74 72 74 72 73 69 64 63 63 62 55 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 10 9 8 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 34 29 24 23 15 11 2 -5 -13 -19 -24 -19 -23 200 MB DIV 49 48 49 39 53 60 8 30 46 10 13 -9 -1 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -8 -7 -3 -3 0 0 0 5 11 11 LAND (KM) 1844 1913 1989 2061 2128 2299 2514 2296 2050 1753 1429 1141 917 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.2 11.0 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.9 15.2 15.9 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.4 122.6 124.0 125.3 128.5 131.9 134.7 136.9 139.4 142.1 144.7 147.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 17 15 12 13 14 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 35 34 36 46 15 6 7 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 22. 21. 17. 11. 4. -4. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##