* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 50 55 57 55 51 46 41 33 28 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 50 55 57 55 51 46 41 33 28 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 48 54 59 62 60 55 50 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 9 14 14 15 18 24 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 -6 -2 0 -2 -2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 353 350 359 12 13 344 307 313 318 319 293 275 259 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 29.0 28.6 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 147 150 152 156 152 139 135 131 127 122 119 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 75 76 69 66 62 62 61 61 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 22 18 16 10 -4 -16 -16 -28 -24 -27 -17 200 MB DIV 47 46 32 44 40 9 15 34 41 22 34 12 17 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -7 -7 -6 -3 -3 1 -2 1 1 4 2 LAND (KM) 1945 1997 2050 2107 2173 2307 2435 2319 2034 1781 1551 1317 1080 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.5 11.3 12.3 13.1 13.9 14.7 15.7 16.3 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.7 123.7 125.0 126.3 128.9 131.5 134.1 136.6 138.8 140.7 142.8 145.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 34 35 41 46 20 6 3 21 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 17. 15. 11. 6. 1. -7. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##