* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/08/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 46 49 50 48 43 38 32 27 21 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 46 49 50 48 43 38 32 27 21 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 45 47 52 56 57 53 48 42 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 7 15 13 20 22 28 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -4 0 -3 -2 -3 0 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 354 352 13 22 10 312 317 302 306 294 274 249 256 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.0 27.9 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 150 152 155 156 145 135 131 127 123 120 119 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 74 72 67 65 63 63 64 64 61 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 20 17 13 0 -14 -20 -25 -31 -25 -26 -31 200 MB DIV 51 38 48 37 17 -1 3 41 2 15 27 26 0 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -7 -4 -3 0 0 0 2 3 2 1 LAND (KM) 1997 2061 2116 2176 2244 2385 2461 2167 1879 1637 1426 1195 945 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.8 12.6 13.6 14.8 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.8 125.0 126.4 127.7 130.3 132.9 135.4 137.8 139.9 141.8 143.9 146.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 13 13 13 12 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 35 38 45 25 11 2 1 19 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 8. 3. -2. -8. -13. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##