* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/08/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 46 48 50 50 47 43 34 26 21 16 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 46 48 50 50 47 43 34 26 21 16 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 46 50 53 51 47 43 37 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 6 7 13 17 19 23 34 34 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 1 -2 -5 -3 -3 -2 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 5 23 40 5 329 307 314 308 310 299 299 307 320 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.5 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 152 155 157 151 138 135 130 124 119 117 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 75 74 72 70 68 62 62 62 62 60 56 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 19 15 10 -1 -18 -17 -20 -31 -15 -20 -31 200 MB DIV 48 70 43 19 1 -8 30 24 -11 9 5 -16 -13 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -9 -8 -6 -2 0 -4 0 4 4 -1 2 LAND (KM) 2071 2123 2181 2252 2331 2488 2234 1915 1638 1422 1287 1088 844 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.2 12.2 13.2 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 123.9 125.1 126.3 127.7 129.1 132.1 134.9 137.7 140.1 141.9 143.0 144.8 147.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 13 11 8 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 38 45 40 16 3 4 18 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 7. 3. -6. -14. -19. -24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/08/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##