* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/09/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 41 40 34 24 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 41 41 40 34 24 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 35 36 39 39 37 34 31 26 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 7 9 16 11 21 29 38 34 39 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 0 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 9 43 317 285 287 305 288 294 292 303 308 305 302 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.6 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.6 25.3 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 155 156 152 138 132 128 125 119 116 116 118 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 74 72 69 66 67 63 58 58 60 59 54 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 7 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 23 19 10 3 -1 -8 -10 -4 -22 -12 -19 -24 -25 200 MB DIV 65 45 13 -11 -12 6 41 21 41 10 2 -8 -10 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -10 -6 -4 -2 0 0 7 1 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 2104 2170 2245 2335 2411 2287 1947 1664 1409 1192 971 791 630 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.4 14.6 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.6 17.8 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 125.7 127.1 128.5 130.0 131.4 134.3 137.2 139.7 142.0 143.9 145.8 147.5 149.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 40 47 33 20 3 2 13 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. -1. -11. -20. -27. -32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/09/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/09/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##