* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/09/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 32 33 31 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 32 33 31 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 26 26 26 26 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 7 7 15 18 16 26 43 36 27 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 -2 -4 0 1 -2 4 2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 330 311 297 294 289 303 283 296 292 298 292 307 320 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.6 27.8 27.0 26.9 26.4 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 153 144 135 134 129 121 117 117 118 121 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 67 66 61 63 59 57 57 56 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 19 9 2 -4 -5 -12 -7 -14 -8 -5 -17 -31 -18 200 MB DIV 51 -2 -24 -23 -24 6 30 13 36 27 17 -52 -53 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -10 -8 -6 -1 -3 0 3 2 0 1 -5 LAND (KM) 2182 2260 2345 2431 2432 2093 1822 1511 1216 999 874 673 414 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.3 17.0 17.4 18.0 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.6 129.9 131.5 133.1 136.1 138.5 141.2 143.8 145.7 146.8 148.6 151.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 16 16 14 13 13 12 8 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 42 49 32 19 9 3 1 10 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 20. 22. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 1. -6. -14. -21. -25. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/09/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/09/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##