* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP062014 07/09/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 19 19 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 19 19 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 9 14 19 14 23 34 43 36 33 30 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 3 -1 0 0 -2 0 5 3 6 6 SHEAR DIR 311 277 281 288 299 301 304 314 311 319 328 341 320 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.5 27.7 27.4 27.5 26.9 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 152 144 140 141 134 128 127 127 127 126 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 65 64 62 62 61 60 59 62 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -1 -8 -9 -14 -14 -10 -25 -8 -25 -29 -45 -38 200 MB DIV 8 -19 -25 -19 7 32 10 23 26 7 -7 -24 -37 700-850 TADV -11 -9 -9 -6 -1 -3 -5 2 5 5 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 2276 2394 2496 2378 2194 1898 1556 1281 1027 793 605 434 306 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.6 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 128.7 130.4 132.1 133.8 135.5 138.3 141.5 144.1 146.6 149.0 151.3 153.4 155.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 15 15 14 13 12 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 25 17 9 5 13 11 1 11 8 10 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -11. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -6. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. -23. -23. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062014 FAUSTO 07/09/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062014 FAUSTO 07/09/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##