* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 07/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 18 19 26 28 29 29 31 31 28 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 1 -1 -4 -5 -2 -2 -6 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 272 271 261 249 256 258 270 262 259 265 270 257 260 SST (C) 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.5 24.1 24.0 23.8 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 123 118 114 112 107 103 101 99 94 94 95 94 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 59 56 53 51 48 44 42 40 40 37 36 32 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -30 -25 -36 -47 -46 -54 -64 -61 -64 -47 -50 -43 200 MB DIV 7 8 4 -15 -19 -12 0 -16 -15 -26 -5 0 -17 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -3 -3 -1 1 4 7 4 2 1 4 LAND (KM) 915 928 947 979 1013 1110 1206 1289 1391 1480 1571 1669 1732 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.0 118.6 119.2 119.8 121.3 122.9 124.4 125.8 126.9 127.9 128.9 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -6. -13. -22. -32. -42. -49. -55. -59. -60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 07/10/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 07/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##