* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * INVEST EP982014 07/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 28 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 28 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 30 29 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 22 26 28 32 32 39 40 39 36 40 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -5 -11 -7 -4 -9 -7 SHEAR DIR 273 260 253 256 259 258 253 241 247 249 245 246 258 SST (C) 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.7 24.6 24.2 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 118 115 113 109 108 103 99 98 97 97 97 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 51 47 45 42 42 41 39 36 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -18 -20 -34 -40 -30 -58 -47 -56 -38 -46 -35 -30 200 MB DIV 5 3 0 -14 -2 -7 -9 1 -7 6 -2 -14 -6 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -5 -3 -2 6 9 7 4 5 5 5 LAND (KM) 1000 1028 1061 1105 1153 1260 1354 1449 1553 1653 1746 1836 1898 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.8 119.5 120.3 121.0 122.6 124.3 125.8 127.2 128.4 129.5 130.6 131.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -12. -18. -24. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -8. -15. -26. -36. -46. -54. -59. -64. -66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 07/10/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 07/10/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##