* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 07/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 24 26 26 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 24 26 26 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 11 14 17 22 28 31 38 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 0 -2 -1 -1 1 3 5 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 207 226 249 262 234 255 253 246 248 263 264 271 277 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.1 25.4 24.9 24.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 139 138 137 137 135 130 124 117 112 110 108 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 63 62 59 59 58 54 52 50 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 13 20 24 25 21 19 27 32 35 28 16 -15 -35 200 MB DIV 4 3 14 19 20 33 51 50 28 4 -26 -24 -13 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 2 5 6 11 11 11 11 10 LAND (KM) 2375 2291 2206 2135 2064 1936 1786 1627 1440 1265 1092 943 840 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.9 13.6 14.5 15.7 17.0 18.2 19.4 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 134.0 134.8 135.6 136.3 136.9 138.0 139.2 140.4 141.8 143.1 144.5 145.8 146.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 6 7 8 11 13 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -17. -20. -21. -21. -20. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. -1. -8. -13. -16. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 07/15/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 07/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##