* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 07/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 34 34 30 24 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 34 34 30 24 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 27 28 28 28 28 27 25 22 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 2 2 5 4 6 10 11 14 20 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 -3 0 5 0 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 227 270 261 229 206 236 200 204 243 250 273 273 281 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 142 142 142 140 135 129 124 119 117 118 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 69 66 68 66 65 61 60 56 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 23 30 31 31 29 40 39 37 8 -14 -30 -43 -41 200 MB DIV 1 14 27 38 47 78 74 76 34 -3 -7 -19 -46 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 4 3 5 4 2 -2 LAND (KM) 2246 2178 2111 2053 1995 1873 1739 1591 1424 1246 1063 900 763 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.5 12.2 13.2 14.2 15.3 16.1 16.7 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 136.0 136.7 137.3 137.9 138.4 139.4 140.4 141.4 142.6 143.9 145.4 146.8 148.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 11 10 10 13 13 7 3 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -20. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 5. -1. -7. -11. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 07/15/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 07/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##