* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 07/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 34 38 37 35 29 23 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 34 38 37 35 29 23 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 32 33 32 30 27 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 1 2 3 7 6 14 19 21 28 35 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 0 1 5 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 66 347 54 169 175 182 209 233 271 278 273 267 267 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 139 136 132 129 127 124 123 124 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 62 65 66 62 60 59 58 57 51 49 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 1 2 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 44 51 52 43 23 7 -15 -46 -41 -33 -6 200 MB DIV 40 49 69 62 52 51 26 -1 -17 -25 -14 18 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 4 1 5 4 3 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1819 1759 1700 1636 1572 1438 1302 1126 948 769 590 427 276 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.9 13.5 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 140.1 140.7 141.2 141.7 142.2 143.2 144.3 145.7 147.2 148.8 150.6 152.4 154.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 18 18 19 6 1 8 0 1 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 12. 10. 4. -2. -8. -13. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 07/16/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 07/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##