* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902014 07/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 31 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 31 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 3 4 2 10 18 21 21 32 40 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 2 2 8 2 0 -3 -1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 94 124 190 190 169 219 249 286 289 274 262 260 255 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 137 135 131 130 128 127 126 126 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 64 64 61 59 56 50 50 47 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 7 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 42 51 49 40 37 18 -4 -27 -45 -39 -42 -27 -21 200 MB DIV 62 72 74 70 67 38 -10 -15 -16 2 27 40 8 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 3 1 2 0 1 -3 -1 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1730 1673 1615 1551 1488 1360 1191 1015 823 652 491 334 235 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 141.2 141.7 142.2 142.7 143.2 144.2 145.6 147.1 148.8 150.5 152.4 154.2 155.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 19 19 13 2 11 9 1 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. -2. -7. -12. -20. -25. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902014 INVEST 07/17/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902014 INVEST 07/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##