* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902014 07/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 4 5 10 23 28 29 38 49 38 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 1 5 2 -1 -5 -2 -2 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 139 256 201 203 212 254 272 290 274 262 253 262 271 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 139 137 134 131 129 126 125 125 124 125 127 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 66 65 59 57 53 53 53 56 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 6 5 4 2 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 43 40 30 27 23 0 -16 -49 -54 -57 -49 -33 -11 200 MB DIV 100 103 78 64 57 15 -17 -19 9 14 28 77 39 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 2 2 5 4 3 1 0 4 0 LAND (KM) 1749 1675 1603 1527 1451 1273 1056 840 644 458 270 111 147 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.4 13.1 14.0 14.8 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.9 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 141.0 141.6 142.2 142.8 143.4 144.9 146.7 148.6 150.4 152.2 154.0 155.7 157.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 19 18 5 12 9 1 2 1 1 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. 0. -4. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -15. -21. -29. -37. -40. -39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902014 INVEST 07/17/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902014 INVEST 07/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##