* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902014 07/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 10 10 17 25 29 36 43 52 53 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 4 5 -1 -1 -4 0 3 5 5 6 SHEAR DIR 191 194 204 228 260 263 289 275 266 253 249 242 245 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 132 130 127 124 122 122 123 123 124 124 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 62 59 56 52 55 54 58 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 39 32 27 13 -9 -36 -52 -52 -64 -52 -43 -41 200 MB DIV 99 70 61 45 25 -10 -17 -12 0 18 43 63 50 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 4 3 5 3 5 -1 1 -1 6 4 LAND (KM) 1654 1578 1502 1422 1341 1151 957 750 550 345 152 -42 42 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.3 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.7 17.6 18.5 19.7 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 141.5 142.1 142.7 143.4 144.0 145.5 147.1 148.8 150.5 152.2 153.8 155.5 157.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 19 21 11 1 1 0 0 0 1 13 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. -15. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -12. -20. -29. -36. -40. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902014 INVEST 07/17/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902014 INVEST 07/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##