* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902014 07/17/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 37 36 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 37 36 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 34 33 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 11 12 17 27 29 36 42 49 45 39 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 1 -1 -5 -3 -1 0 2 4 5 0 SHEAR DIR 184 201 220 257 265 271 279 267 258 260 257 264 261 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.5 25.0 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 132 129 126 118 112 109 109 109 110 111 113 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -53.1 -53.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 69 68 66 62 61 57 53 48 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 6 5 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 28 19 4 -11 -25 -32 -55 -48 -60 -35 -30 -28 -43 200 MB DIV 83 89 71 33 1 -7 -22 -5 0 27 43 26 5 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 0 2 5 4 1 0 -2 4 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 1729 1649 1570 1474 1379 1199 1073 987 890 787 681 583 486 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.2 16.8 18.1 19.0 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 140.4 140.9 141.3 142.0 142.6 143.8 144.7 145.4 146.3 147.3 148.4 149.5 150.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 9 9 9 7 5 5 6 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 2 1 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -10. -17. -23. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. -9. -20. -32. -45. -53. -57. -61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902014 INVEST 07/17/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902014 INVEST 07/17/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##