* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALI CP012014 07/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 48 49 47 40 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 45 48 49 47 40 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 49 50 49 42 34 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 15 21 31 35 42 47 52 39 36 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 4 0 -3 -5 -3 -1 5 5 6 0 5 SHEAR DIR 169 224 250 251 258 284 272 266 251 249 240 247 250 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 130 128 123 117 116 117 121 122 124 126 129 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 65 66 63 58 58 56 62 58 57 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 3 3 6 850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 -16 -21 -24 -35 -50 -51 -54 -49 -48 -37 -26 200 MB DIV 96 80 39 14 9 -7 -13 13 37 52 77 38 18 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 4 3 4 1 1 1 8 3 6 LAND (KM) 1644 1556 1468 1365 1263 1067 858 647 398 173 3 109 192 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.8 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 140.9 141.5 142.1 142.9 143.6 145.1 146.9 148.8 151.1 153.2 155.2 157.1 158.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 3 12 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 11 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -16. -22. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 9. 7. 0. -11. -23. -38. -49. -56. -60. -58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012014 WALI 07/18/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012014 WALI 07/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##