* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALI CP012014 07/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 28 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 19 25 30 35 46 54 51 52 44 40 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 1 5 1 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 254 260 263 281 287 270 261 253 254 243 240 243 268 SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.2 25.5 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 123 121 118 116 119 119 120 121 123 124 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 65 62 55 54 56 63 59 56 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 10 9 7 6 4 4 3 2 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -33 -34 -33 -44 -45 -45 -43 -39 -39 -33 -12 -24 200 MB DIV 28 1 -7 -19 -20 -25 18 40 44 65 59 37 -21 700-850 TADV 3 1 2 0 0 4 0 3 3 11 6 10 0 LAND (KM) 1503 1410 1319 1206 1094 840 536 350 233 83 -31 53 73 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.2 19.5 19.6 20.1 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 141.7 142.4 143.0 143.9 144.8 147.0 149.8 151.5 152.6 154.0 155.3 156.5 157.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 11 11 13 11 7 6 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 3 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -16. -24. -31. -35. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -12. -13. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -12. -22. -33. -46. -57. -66. -71. -67. -69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012014 WALI 07/18/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012014 WALI 07/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##