* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/20/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 30 26 22 19 16 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 30 26 22 19 16 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 22 22 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 10 13 15 15 19 21 26 34 40 41 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 2 3 5 6 6 4 2 1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 322 313 317 321 316 299 283 278 253 251 258 270 275 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 152 154 156 159 157 153 150 148 146 141 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 67 68 66 65 63 68 69 67 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 13 10 9 10 9 3 -10 -17 -19 -8 -2 4 200 MB DIV 38 21 30 26 2 -6 8 33 41 62 40 28 42 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 1 0 1 -4 0 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1148 1185 1230 1282 1348 1488 1589 1717 1844 2019 2204 2376 2220 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.4 110.6 111.9 113.2 116.0 118.9 121.6 124.3 127.0 129.7 132.3 134.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 14 15 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 32 35 35 41 36 34 15 11 32 24 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/20/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/20/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##